Voting is in favor of whom?
On November 5, voters across the United States will vote to select their next president.
The election was initially expected to be a rematch of the 2020 contest, but everything took a dramatic turn in July when President Joe Biden decided to end his campaign and officially endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor.
Now, the big question facing the nation is: will America finally have its first woman president, or will Donald Trump secure a second term in office?
As we approach election day, we will be closely tracking the latest polls and analyzing how the ongoing campaign is shaping the race for the White House and influencing voter opinions.
Who is leading national polls?
Harris is currently ahead of Trump in the national polling averages, as illustrated in the chart below. The latest figures have been rounded to the nearest whole number for clarity.
In the months leading up to Biden’s decision to end his campaign, polls consistently indicated that he was trailing behind former President Trump. However, the dynamics shifted significantly once Harris took to the campaign trail.
As she began to connect with voters and share her vision, she developed a small but noticeable lead. Since then, she has been able to maintain that lead, showcasing her growing support among the electorate.
Who is winning?
The two candidates went head to head in a televised debate in Pennsylvania on 10 September that just over 67 million people tuned in to watch. A couple of snap polls released immediately after the debate found that most viewers thought Harris had been the better performer.
A majority of national polls conducted since then indicate that Harris has gained a few points. Although her overall polling average hasn’t changed much, her lead increased slightly from 2.5 percentage points on the day of the debate to 2.9 points one week later.
This small boost is primarily attributed to changes in Trump’s numbers. His average had been climbing prior to the debate, but it dropped by half a percentage point in the week following it.
You can observe these minor shifts in the poll tracker chart below, which displays the trend lines showing how the averages have evolved, as well as the dots representing individual poll results for each candidate.
Polls 2024
While these national polls provide a helpful indication of how popular a candidate is across the country, they aren’t always reliable for predicting the outcome of the election.
This is mainly because the United States uses an electoral college system, where each state is assigned a number of votes based on its population size. There are a total of 538 electoral college votes available, and a candidate needs to secure at least 270 to win the presidency.
The U.S. consists of 50 states, but since most states tend to consistently vote for the same party, there are only a few key states where both candidates have a real chance of winning. These critical states are where the election will truly be decided, and they are commonly referred to as battleground states.
Who is winning in battleground states?
Currently, the polls in the seven battleground states are extremely close, making it difficult to determine who is truly leading the race. There are fewer state polls available compared to national polls, which means we have less information to analyze. Additionally, every poll includes a margin of error, indicating that the numbers could actually be higher or lower than reported.
At this point, recent polls show that there is less than one percentage point separating the two candidates in several key states. This includes Pennsylvania, which is especially important because it has the highest number of electoral votes. Winning this state can significantly help a candidate reach the 270 votes needed to secure the presidency.
Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin had all been Democratic strongholds before Trump turned them red on his path to winning the presidency in 2016. Biden retook them in 2020 and if Harris can do the same this year then she will be on course to win the election.
In a sign of how the race has changed since Harris became the Democratic nominee, on the day Joe Biden quit the race he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points on average in these seven battleground states.
How are these averages created?
The figures presented in the graphics above are averages compiled by the polling analysis website 538, which is affiliated with the American news network ABC News. To create these averages, 538 gathers data from individual polls conducted both nationally and in battleground states by various polling organizations.
To ensure quality, 538 only includes polls from companies that meet specific standards. These standards require companies to be transparent about important details, such as how many people they surveyed, when the poll took place, and the method used for conducting the poll (whether through phone calls, text messages, online surveys, etc.).
Can we trust the polls?
Current polls indicate that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are only a few percentage points apart, both on a national level and in crucial battleground states. With the race so close, predicting a winner becomes exceedingly difficult. The uncertainty is amplified by past polling errors, as support for Trump was underestimated in both the 2016 and 2020 elections.
Polling companies are now focused on addressing these previous inaccuracies. They are trying to adjust their methods to ensure that their results more accurately reflect the composition of the voting population. However, making these adjustments is a complex process, and it’s hard to get everything exactly right.
Pollsters must also make educated guesses about other factors that can influence the outcome, such as who will actually show up to vote on November 5.
Written and produced by Mike Robert and Libby Fido. Design by Joy Lexus!
